We propose a 3-year Key Project to use LCO facilities for the photometric follow-up of transiting exoplanet candidates detected by the TESS mission during its 3rd Extended Mission (September 2025 – September 2028). This proposal is a continuation and evolution of two previous LCO Key Projects (KEY2020B-005 and KEY2023B-005) that have contributed to about 260 peer-reviewed publications and the validation or confirmation of over 350 planetary systems to date.
TESS's large pixel size (21″×21″) means that multiple stars are typically blended in the photometric aperture, resulting in a ~50% false positive rate. Ground-based seeing-limited photometry is essential for identifying the true source of each transit signal. Among all facilities conducting TESS photometric follow-up, the LCO 1m/Sinistro network produces the highest data quality, routinely achieving 200–400 ppm model residuals in 10-minute bins and reliably detecting transits as shallow as 700 ppm.
Our project has two science objectives. The first is advancing the understanding of small planets (≲4 R⊕). The origin of the observed radius valley near 1.6 R⊕ — whether driven by photoevaporation, core-powered mass loss, or a compositional dichotomy between rocky cores and migrated steam worlds — remains an open question that can be addressed by populating the radius-mass diagram with more precisely characterized planets. Recent JWST atmospheric detections on rocky exoplanets further highlight the value of discovering small planets around bright host stars suitable for mass measurement and atmospheric characterization. We expect our observations to lead to the discovery of at least 140 small planets with measurable masses over 3 years.
The second objective focuses on warm Jupiters — gas-giant planets with orbital periods beyond ~10 days. Unlike hot Jupiters, warm Jupiters retain the orbital eccentricity imprints of their dynamical histories, making their eccentricity distribution a diagnostic of formation and migration mechanisms. Furthermore, warm Jupiters lie below the irradiation threshold for radius inflation, providing a baseline for testing interior structure models against measured radii. We will pursue warm Jupiter candidates including duo-transit systems, where TESS observes only two transits separated by a long data gap, requiring ground-based observations to determine the unique orbital period. We also will monitor systems showing transit timing variations (TTVs) to measure planet masses in multi-planet systems. We expect to discover approximately 60 warm Jupiters in 3 years.
We request 1,045 x 1m/Sinistro hours, 480 x 0.35m/QHY600 hours, and 180 x 2m/MuSCAT hours per semester. Additional time will be contributed by LCO site partners, for a total of 1,400 x 1m/Sinistro hours, 800 x 0.35m/QHY600 hours, and 240 x 2m/MuSCAT hours per semester, meaning that the time contributed by LCO site partners will be 40% of the total 0.35m/QHY600 time and 25% of the 1m/Sinistro and 2m/MuSCAT time. Our team includes key members of the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP), and we have developed automated scheduling, data reduction, and coordination tools that maximize observing efficiency and minimize duplication. All LCO data and results will be uploaded to the ExoFOP-TESS community repository, amplifying the scientific impact of this Key Project well beyond our own team.